After months of terrible signals for Donald Trump’s re-election bid, here is some good news for the sitting president. According to the first polls taken following the Democrat Convention, Joe Biden has not received a bounce.
Following the Democrat and Republican conventions, the verdict from Betfair punters is clear. Donald Trump has a considerably better chance of re-election than he did when they started.
Portland police are investigating the shooting death of a man in clashes between demonstrators at a pro-Trump vehicle rally and counterprotesters.
Republicans say more chaos and violence are in store if Joe Biden is elected, while Democrats say what’s happening is “Donald Trump’s America.”
The RNC wrapped up Thursday under the theme, "America, Land of Greatness."
Democratic strategists are worried scenes of violence in Kenosha, Wis., and the “defund the police” debate could give Republicans and President Trump a boost with suburban voters.
R.ecent polls agree that about a third of voters intend to vote by mail this year. But not all voters plan to do so in equal numbers. Democrats are much likelier than Republicans to say they will vote by mail.
The GOP has gone all out to elevate the voices of Cuban-Americans in Florida, small business owners in Wisconsin and farmers in Iowa during the convention’s first three nights.
NBA postpones playoff games as anger grows over police shooting of black man in Kenosha
Vice President Pence on Wednesday condemned violent protests in American cities, including Kenosha, Wis., standing firmly with law enforcement even as the latest police shooting of a Black man has set off another round of intense protests.
We looked at how 16 battleground states have voted in the last five presidential elections to see how they might go in 2020.
First lady Melania Trump struck an empathetic tone for the country, which is still struggling with the coronavirus. Her speech stood out from the bulk of the program, which largely sidestepped the issue that is the central one voters are likely to consider in November's election.
The convention began earlier in the day in Charlotte, North Carolina, where the Republican Party formally renominated President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence for a second term in office.
Move comes as FDA gives emergency authorisation for use of plasma from recovered patients.
A small number of Republican leaders will be physically present in Charlotte, N.C., on Monday, but most of the convention will be virtual.
The former vice president pledges to protect America and accuses Trump of letting the country down.
There has never been a mismatch like it in the history of political betting. According to Betfair Joe Biden is 57% likely to win the election, compared to 41% for Donald Trump. Polling models, however, paint a very different picture.
President Trump's former adviser and three others are accused in a scheme to use funds raised for construction to pay for personal expenses.
Fewer undecideds, more party unity, and an independent shift.
Democrats formally nominated Joe Biden as their presidential candidate Tuesday night, with party elders, a new generation of politicians and voters in every state joining together to send him into the general election campaign to oust President Donald Trump.
Presidential approval may actually be the simplest way to explain why Joe Biden is the favorite to win the election – and by a substantial margin, if you trust either LeanTossup or DDHQ/Optimus forecasting, both of which get to the same macro place even if we disagree on the margins.
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll has good news for the Democrats on the eve of their virtual convention and after a week which has seen Kamala Harris become Biden’s VP pick.
The great talking point of US politics right now is whether the polls are tightening or not, and whether the consequence of a tightening – a second Trump term – is more likely than it was a week ago or a month ago.
There is no way Trump wins the electoral college without Florida. Nor with less than 46% of the vote. Yet his odds for the former are comparable to the outright odds and much bigger for the latter percentage target. If you fancy Trump, focus on those bets rather than the presidency.
The model produces probabilistic forecasts, estimating the chances of each candidate winning. It will update continuously until Election Day.
A former rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, she will be the first woman of color to be nominated for national office by a major political party.
Better value for Trump backers in individual states.
Apps ‘a threat’ to national security, foreign policy and economy of the United States, according to Washington.
The U.S. gained 1.8 million jobs in July as rising coronavirus cases across much of the country hindered the economic rebound from the first wave of the pandemic, the Labor Department reported Friday.
American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has a record of accurately predicting presidential races, said he expects former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, to defeat President Trump in November.
President Donald Trump quickly attacked Biden over the remark.
But she did lead by more in certain key states.
CBS reporter’s question appears to raise ire of presumptive Democratic presidential nominee
New polling suggests he’s creating a problem for his party
President Trump on Thursday suggested delaying the 2020 elections, something he does not have the power to do unilaterally, as he levied fresh attacks against mail-in voting.
An economy badly battered by the coronavirus shrank at a record 32.9% annual pace in the second quarter, underscoring just how big a hole the U.S. finds itself in as it labors to recover from the deepest recession in American history.
According to a Republican source, Vice President Mike Pence said that, “We are all making plans for him to accept the re-nomination here in Charlotte.”
The Sunshine State has voted for the national winner in each of the past six presidential elections.
The first US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden will take place in Cleveland, Ohio, on 29 September.
How does Biden’s position measure up against past presidential races? This will be the fifth US election ever to be traded on Betfair. Here’s what happened previously.
On top of the main WH2020 next president market there’s a huge range of betting possibilities and expect more of them once Biden and Trump are confirmed as nominees next month.
Inevitably with Trump polling an average nine points behind Biden the President himself and his campaign are looking at plus points from the mass of data that is coming out – and here they are citing the enthusiasm gap.
Gamblers are motivated to put their money down when they have a strong opinion – and the US president inspires very strong opinions
Biden versus Trump. Some speculate that the future of the republic hinges on the outcome of the next election. But for smart investors it doesn't really matter who wins.
During the interview, Wallace debuted the results of Fox News’ latest national poll, which showed the presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading Trump by 8%.
The president and attorney general continue to push mail-in voting fraud claims.
At their final sitting of this term, the US Supreme Court offered considerable relief to those fearing the rule of law was in mortal danger. In two long-running cases, they effectively ruled that President Trump is not immune from investigation.
The justices asked a lower court to look again at a subpoena for Trump's taxes.
Across four hours of interviews, the rap billionaire says he’s never voted, has recovered from Covid but doubts vaccines and envisions running a presidency modeled on Wakanda in Black Panther.
Exactly 17 weeks today, US voters head to the polls for what appears, right now, to be their most one-sided election of the 21st century. The Economist/Yougov rate Joe Biden 90% likely to win, compared to a meagre 10% for Donald Trump.
Betting markets have turned decisively toward an expected victory for Joe Biden in November — and asset managers at major investment banks are preparing for not only a Biden win, but potentially a Democratic sweep of the Senate and House too.
Analysts and investors have viewed some of Biden’s policies as being potential negatives for stocks, while Trump argued last week that “the stock market will drop down to nothing” if he is not re-elected Nov. 3.
A Democratic senator says the decision "leaves Americans sick and America alone" as Joe Biden pledges to rejoin if elected.
Colleges could be in a tough spot if they want to keep international students enrolled.
There have been instances over the past few months when both men have appeared past it and it will be critical for both their chances that there should be no repetition which is widely picked up by the media.
President Donald Trump on Friday accused “angry mobs” of trying to erase history with efforts to remove or rethink monuments to U.S. historical figures and used a speech at Mount Rushmore to paint himself as a bulwark against left-wing extremism.
The jobs growth marked a big leap from the 2.7 million in May, which was revised up by 190,000. The June total is easily the largest single-month gain in U.S. history.
Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University told Lou Dobbs on August 16th, 2016, that Donald Trump had an 87% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential election.
President Donald Trump has threatened to veto the entire defense bill if it contains a provision that would strip the names of Confederate generals from U.S. military bases.
U.S. stock indexes finished higher on Tuesday, capping the best quarter for Wall Street in around 20 years, after strong economic data helped to offset concerns around a rising COVID-19 tally in the U.S.
So many WH2020 polls are coming out at the moment but virtually all are showing the same big picture – Biden with double digit leads.
“Congress and the country need answers now,” she says.
An explosive report claims Trump knew a Russian military unit was paying Afghan militants a bounty to kill U.S. soldiers.
A Fox News report on Sunday says that "GOP operatives are for the first time raising the possibility" that President Trump could drop out of the 2020 presidential race "if his poll numbers don’t rebound" against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
President Donald Trump retweeted a video Sunday morning that included footage of a white man driving a golf cart adorned with Trump campaign posters and flags shouting "white power," before deleting the tweet roughly four hours later.
President Donald Trump denied Sunday that he knew about an intelligence report that concluded Russia had paid a bounty to the Taliban to kill American troops serving in Afghanistan.
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden called the bid cruel and callous
Current 2020 US presidential winner market forecasts Biden at 62%, while Trump drops to 40%.
FiveThirtyEight’s general election polling averages debuted last week, showing that former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, holds a big lead over President Trump in national surveys — about 10 percentage points
Barack Obama made his first campaign appearance alongside Joe Biden since endorsing him for president in April, helping raise more than $11m while warning Democrats against being “complacent or smug” about the presidential race.
President Trump on Tuesday threatened to lock up protesters who try to pull down statues and monuments, drawing a line in the sand for activists demanding a racial justice makeover of U.S. history.
U.S. President Donald Trump suspended the entry into the United States of certain foreign workers on Monday, a move the White House said would help the coronavirus-battered economy, but which business groups strongly oppose.
President Donald Trump launched his comeback rally Saturday by defining the upcoming election as a stark choice between national heritage and left-wing radicalism. But his intended show of political force amid a pandemic featured thousands of empty seats and new coronavirus cases on his own campaign staff.
President Donald Trump’s campaign geared up for a massive crowd at his Tulsa, Okla., rally on Saturday, and things don’t seem to have turned out as planned. While many factors might have actually led to the event’s sparse turnout, many suggest that young people could be behind the overstated hype.
Following an underwhelming rally in Tulsa, incumbent Donald Trump’s odds to retain the Presidency grew longer yet again.
US President Donald Trump said Saturday he was encouraging health officials in his administration to slow down coronavirus testing, arguing that increased tests lead to more cases being discovered.
The revelations make Trump’s WH2020 re-election challenge even harder.
The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday dealt President Donald Trump a major setback on his hardline immigration policies, blocking his bid to end a program that protects from deportation hundreds of thousands of immigrants who entered the United States illegally as children.
A group of prominent Republican operatives that includes former officials from the Trump and George W. Bush administrations are launching a super PAC to turn out GOP voters for Joe Biden in November, organizers tell Axios.
Following weeks of national protests since the death of George Floyd, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on policing Tuesday that would encourage better police practices and establish a database to keep track of officers with a history of excessive use-of-force complaints.
Biden’s widening his lead among black and Hispanic voters, as well as with young people and liberals
The difficulty Trump is possibly having walking down a ramp at West Point caused much speculation in the press.
The former VP is earning a historic amount of support from female voters for a presidential nominee when examining polling over the last 70 years.
Election Day is now less than five months away and recent state-level surveys are giving Biden an edge over Trump in a number of key swing states.
The Economist is analysing polling, economic and demographic data to predict America’s elections in 2020.
For the last three weeks, President Trump’s approval rating has steadily ticked downward. It now sits at 41.1 percent,1 according to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker.
A guest slot from Mr. Ed on why he thinks the President will be re-elected.
The job market unexpectedly reversed its free fall in May as employers brought back millions of workers after pandemic-induced layoffs and the unemployment rate declined.
Trump called the jobs report "an affirmation of all the work we've been doing" over the course of his administration and said earlier predictions were "the greatest miscalculation in the history of business shows."
The move brings Snapchat more in line with Twitter's approach to the president's rhetoric, while Facebook has maintained it will not take action.
Samuel Sinyangwe, a data analyst and co-founder of Campaign Zero, joins the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast to discuss data on police violence and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.
Protests against the killing of George Floyd intensified over the weekend
There can be no nuance if these events are to be exploited for maximal political gain. And, it being an election year, that’s the president's objective.
President Donald Trump on Monday derided the nation’s governors as “weak” and demanded tougher crackdowns on protesters in the aftermath of another night of violent protests in dozens of American cities.
Trump turned security forces on peaceful protesters in front of the White House as tear gas and rubber bullets flew before declaring himself the "law and order" President. He then stood in front of an iconic church holding a Bible in a striking photo op.
Declaring himself the “president of law and order,” Trump said he would act if local officials couldn’t contain violent demonstrations.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has been the polling favorite for the 2020 presidential election since he became the presumptive Democratic Party nominee in early April. He’s now the political betting favorite, too.
While both companies' CEOs say they are not ‘arbiters of truth,’ Twitter has added warnings on some recent posts by the president, whereas Facebook left identical remarks alone.
President Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. government will designate the far-left group Antifa as a terrorist organization.
"We've taken action in the interest of preventing others from being inspired to commit violent acts, but have kept the tweet on Twitter," the company said.
As the strange election year that is 2020 marches on, Trump has returned to his 2016 rhetoric, but it may register differently.
President Donald Trump escalated his war on Twitter and other social media companies Thursday, signing an executive order challenging the lawsuit protections that have served as a bedrock for unfettered speech on the internet.
President Donald Trump accused Twitter on Tuesday of "interfering" in the US election, after the social media network labelled two of his tweets "unsubstantiated" for the first time.
Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie told the president he's down in swing states, prompting campaign chiefs in Arizona and Florida to travel to D.C.
Joe Biden had yet another sad event the other night, a Yahoo-sponsored virtual town-hall gathering that made zero news.
Joe Biden said he "shouldn't have been such a wise guy" on Friday hours after he told a popular African American radio host that anyone struggling to decide whether to support him or President Donald Trump in the general election "ain't black."
Oxford Economics predicts Trump would lose to Democrat Joe Biden by a margin of 65% to 35%, using a model based on the pioneering political-forecasting work of Yale economist Ray Fair.
Attacking Joe Biden will only get the president so far, they said — ultimately the election will be a referendum on him.
President Donald Trump ramps up attacks against former President Barack Obama as he shifts his focus from the coronavirus response to the upcoming presidential election.
President Trump followed up on Sunday evening his previous night's tweetstorm on the investigations into his campaign's alleged ties to Russia with more tweets and retweets on the matter. And he lashed out at former President Obama in some posts — days after his predecessor criticized him.
Biden's lead is about as steady as it can possibly be. Not only is he up 6 points over the last month or so, but the average of polls since the beginning of the year has him ahead by 6 points. Moreover, all the polls taken since the beginning of 2019 have him up 6 points.
In a conference call with former staff members, Obama said, “It has been an absolute chaotic disaster when that mindset of ‘what’s in it for me’ and ‘to heck with everybody else’ – when that mindset is operationalized in our government.”
An unprecedented collapse in April driven by the coronavirus fallout sent the unemployment rate to 14.7 percent, well beyond the peak hit in late 2009 during the global financial crisis. The jobless rate in March was 4.4 percent.
President Donald Trump promised more federal help for Americans left jobless by the pandemic and vowed to press ahead with reopening the economy, addressing the nation in a televised town hall event at the Lincoln Memorial as coronavirus cases and deaths continue to mount.
We are now about six months from the general election, and while the national party conventions won’t make it official until August, President Trump will face former Vice President Joe Biden in November. So the question we’re left with now is: When should you start paying attention to the general election polls?
President Donald Trump is walking back what he said during an April 23 coronavirus press briefing about using disinfectants to treat COVID-19 patients.
Despite the mess he’s created in the country by his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, Donald Trump remains the -129 favorite to be re-elected President of the United States.
President Donald Trump signed his anticipated executive order barring some immigration to the United States on Wednesday evening, nearly 48 hours after announcing the move on Twitter.
President Trump has again supported anti-lockdown protests across the US, going against his own public health advice on social distancing.
President Trump has announced new federal guidelines for reopening the country that place responsibility on governors on how to restart business and end the stay-home-orders in their states. This comes as health experts and lawmakers across the nation continue to call on the administration to expand coronavirus testing, which is still critically lacking.
The latest data from Gallup and a slew of other national polls conducted this month suggest that while Trump clearly benefited from a sort of rally-'round-our-President effect in the early days of the pandemic's grips on the country, that bump has now disappeared.
A look at what happened to presidents' approval ratings and campaigns for a second term during national crises.
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